The
example of Blaise Pascal, the famous French mathematician of 17th
century, proves that gambling might be not so much a purpose as
means. It can be an excellent exercise for mind, as in case with
Pascal and another French mathematician - Fermat, who invented
calculations, now known to us as theory of probabilities.
"Theory
of probabilities was created when Pascal and Fermat started playing
gambling games", stated one of their contemporaries.
These
two scientists did sums on theory of probabilities by correspondence
and the relevant material was obtained during their visits to the
gambling house at leisure. Later this correspondence resulted in
Pascal's treatise, "completely new composition on accidental
combinations which govern the gambling games".
In his
work Pascal almost completely casts out phantoms of luck and chance
from gambling games, substituting them with cold statistic
calculations based on the arithmetic mind. It's difficult for us to
imagine what riot the invention made among the gamblers. We treat
theory of probabilities as something trivial, though only specialists
are sound on its details, but everyone understands its main
principle. But in the times of the French mathematician, the minds of
all gamblers were absorbed with such notions as "divine intent",
"lap of Fortune" and other things that only enhance the
obsession by the game adding extra mystical tones to the games.
Pascal without any hesitation opposes his thesis to such attitude to
the game "Fluctuations of happiness and luck subordinate to
considerations based on fairness and which aim irrevocably to give
every player what actually is owing to him".
In
Pascal's hands mathematics became fabulous art of foreseeing. It is
more than just amazing that unlike Galileo, the French scientist did
not make numerous tiring experiments on multiple throwing dice that
tool a great deal of time. In Pascal's opinion, the unique feature of
the art of mathematic consideration compared to the common statistics
is that it obtains its results not from the experiments but is based
on "mind foreseeing", i.e. on intellectual definitions. As
a result" preciseness of mathematics is combined with
uncertainty of chance. Our method borrows its awkward name -
"mathematics of chance" from this ambiguity". Another
curious name followed Pascal's invention - "method of
mathematical expectation".
Staked
money, wrote Pascal, no more belonged to gamester. However, losing
nth sum of money, players also gain something in return, though most
of them do not even guess it. In fact, it is something absolutely
virtual, you cannot touch it neither put into your pocket and to
notice it - the gambler should possess certain intellectual ability.
We are talking about the acquired "right to expect regular gain
a chance can give according to the initial terms - stakes".
Somebody
will say that it is not so encouraging. However seeming dryness of
this formulation ceases when you just pay your attention to word
combination "regular gain". Expectation of gain turns out
to be quite justified and fair. It's another matter that a more
hot-tempered person is more likely to pay his attention to the word
“chance” and "can give" (and consequently it might also
be otherwise).
Using
his method of "mathematical expectation", the French
scientist thoroughly calculates particular values of "right for
gain" depending on different initial terms. Thus a completely
new definition of right appears in mathematics which differs from the
similar definitions of law or ethics.
"Pascal's
triangle" or where theory of probabilities fails.
Pascal
summed up the results of these experiments in the form of the
so-called arithmetic triangle consisting of numerical numbers. If you
can apply it, you can precisely foresee probability of different
gains.
For
common people "Pascal's triangle" looked more like magic
tables of kabbalists or like a mystic Buddhist mandala. Failure to
understand the invention by the illiterate public in 17th century
touched the rumour that "Pascal's triangle" helped to
forecast world catastrophes and natural disasters of the remote
future. Indeed presentations of theory of probabilities in the form
of graphic tables or figures and moreover proved by the real game
caused almost religious sensations in uneducated gamblers.
Though
we should not mix theory of probabilities with what it is not by its
definition. "Pascal's triangle" fails to foresee the future
deal in one particular case. Eyeless destiny governs such things -
and Pascal never debated it. Theory of probabilities becomes useful
and can be applied only in relation to the long series of chances.
Only in this case, number probabilities, series and progressions,
constant and known in advance can influence the decision of a clever
gambler in favor of a particular stake (card, lead, etc.)
Pascal's
invention is even more amazing if to take into account that its
famous triangle was known to Muslim mathematician of certain
religious orders many centuries ago. It is absolutely true that
European Pascal could not obtain this information from anywhere.
All
this once again proves that mathematical patterns of any process are
the same regardless of time and space and whims of the so called
Fortune. Awareness of this fact enraptured by Pythagoreans,
philosophers who deeply and emotionally perceived it at that time.
One to
thirty-five.
Pascal
more and more often faced similar complications connected with the
game that caused controversies in gambling houses and aristocratic
mansions in France of that time. Among them there was a problem
proposed to young Blaise by one of his aristocratic friends.
The
problem concerned dice. It was desired to find how many series of
throws is theoretically necessary so that the chances to win (two
sixs) will dominate the probability of all other outcomes taken
together. All this is not so difficult as a beginner may presume. It
is easy to notice that in the game with two bones there are only 36
combinations of numbers and only one gives double six. After such
explanation it is clear for any sensible person that with one-time
throw there is only one chance to thirty-five to win.
The
result of these simple calculations can cast down many fans of dice,
but on the other hand, the rapture of those lucky ones throwing
double six is staggering. Because they know the exact devil number of
opposite outcomes that opposed their luck!
2 comments:
Its mainly a luck game..... :)
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